thyssenkrupp





Engineering Tomorrow's World

Keynote Content

10 x First-Principles Optimizations

Using Annual Report from ThyssenKrupp &
Status Update with Expert Insights from News Report

25 x Business Model Upgrades

With AI-driven Market Research &
Blue Ocean Strategy Development

Ground Truth

Official Annual Report from ThyssenKrupp
from 30th of September 2024 with 338 pages of data

Financial Snapshot

Revenue: €35.041 billion (-7% YoY)

Adjusted EBIT: €567 million (-19% YoY)

Net loss: €1.45 billion

Free cash flow before M&A: €110 million (-70%)

Additional Insights from Industry Experts distilled
from News Report on ThyssenKrupp's Situation

Factors Contributing to Crisis

External Market Factors

  • Global steel overcapacity and price pressure
  • Low-cost Asian steel imports
  • High German energy costs
  • Declining German steel production (-25% since 2000)
  • Shifting steel production to emerging markets
  • Weak current market demand
  • Internal/Company Factors

  • Underutilized production facilities
  • High personnel costs
  • Unsuccessful merger attempts
  • Management instability
  • Slow adaptation to market shifts
  • Heavy reliance on traditional methods
  • Political/Regulatory Factors

  • Costly German decarbonization policies
  • Increased energy prices due to the loss of Russian gas
  • Complex bureaucracy and approvals
  • High G7 corporate taxes
  • Strict labor laws and union influence
  • Current Measures & Strategies

    ThyssenKrupp's Plans:

  • Cut 5,000 jobs by 2030
  • Outsource 6,000 positions
  • Close Kreuztal facility completely
  • Invest in green steel technology
  • Partnership with Czech investor Kretinski (20% stake)
  • Union/Worker Response:

  • Strong opposition to site closure
  • Threat of industrial action ("getting out the steel hammer")
  • Demand for withdrawal of Kreuztal closure plans
  • Utilizing Montanmitbestimmung (co-determination rights)
  • Planning protests and demonstrations
  • Political/Government Discussion:

  • Possible industrial electricity price supports
  • Subsidies for green steel technology
  • Infrastructure improvements
  • Debate about debt brake relaxation
  • Discussion of corporate tax reforms
  • First Principles Thinking

    Question Assumptions

    Challenge conventional wisdom.

    Ask: "What are we absolutely certain is true?"

    Challenge Constraints

    Recognize that most constraints are human-made, not physics-based.

    Ask: "Why not?"

    Rebuild Solutions

    Rebuild solutions from the ground up, not by analogy.

    The DFX Method (Design for X)

    Design for Cost (DFC)

    Minimize costs by eliminating unnecessary components & complexity.

    Design for Manufacturing (DFM)

    Optimize designs for scalable & efficient manufacturing.

    Design for Simplicity (DFS)

    Reduce part count & complexity for intuitive assembly.

    Design for Production Rate (DFPR)

    Prioritize speed & eliminate production bottlenecks.

    First-Principles Optimizations

    Top 10 Quick Wins that Maximise ROI & Minimize Layoffs

    1. Energy Optimization

    (€50-100M/year)

    Current state:
    High energy costs severely impacting margins.

    First principles solution:
    Implement real-time energy monitoring & load balancing.

    Chain of thought:
    Energy is pure physics - optimize usage patterns, heat recovery & peak load management without affecting production.

    2. Inventory Management

    (€100-200M/year)

    Current state:
    Working capital tied up in excess inventory.

    First principles solution:
    Implement pull-based production system.

    Chain of thought:
    Each stored ton is wasted capital - optimize
    order-to-delivery cycle using data analytics.

    3. Production Line Flexibility

    (€150-250M/year)

    Current state:
    Rigid production setup with 11.5M ton capacity.

    First principles solution:
    Modular production cells that can scale up/down.

    Chain of thought:
    Break down production into smallest autonomous units that can operate independently.

    4. Maintenance Optimization

    (€200-300M/year)

    Current state:
    Traditional scheduled maintenance.

    First principles solution:
    Predictive maintenance using IoT sensors.

    Chain of thought:
    Equipment fails based on physics, not schedules - monitor actual wear patterns.

    5. Process Integration

    (€250-350M/year)

    Current state:
    Siloed operations across divisions.

    First principles solution:
    Unified digital backbone for all operations.

    Chain of thought:
    Information flow should mirror material flow - eliminate artificial barriers.

    6. Quality Control Redesign

    (€300-400M/year)

    Current state:
    Traditional quality inspection points.

    First principles solution:
    In-line quality monitoring with ML.

    Chain of thought:
    Defects are physical deviations - detect them at source.

    7. Supply Chain Optimization

    (€350-450M/year)

    Current state:
    Complex supplier network.

    First principles solution:
    Strategic supplier consolidation & vertical integration.

    Chain of thought:
    Each handoff adds cost - minimize transitions while maintaining flexibility.

    8. Workforce Utilization

    (€400-500M/year)

    Current state:
    27.000 employees in steel division.

    First principles solution:
    Skills-based flexible workforce deployment.

    Chain of thought:
    Match skills to needs dynamically instead of fixed positions.

    9. Asset Utilization

    (€450-550M/year)

    Current state:
    Underutilized facilities.

    First principles solution:
    Dynamic capacity allocation.

    Chain of thought:
    Every machine hour is a physics-based opportunity - maximize value creation time.

    10. Product Mix Optimization

    (€500-600M/year)

    Current state:
    Traditional product portfolio.

    First principles solution:
    Data-driven product mix decisions.

    Chain of thought:
    Each product should maximize margin per ton of capacity.

    Implementation Notes

    Savings

    total potential savings (€ annually)

    Timeline

    for full implementation

    Investment

    of expected savings

    Can be executed while maintaining workforce largely intact. Focus on physics-based optimization over pure cost-cutting.

    Additional AI-powered Strategic Analysis

    1. ThyssenKrupp

  • SWOT
  • Porter's 5 Forces
  • Growth-Share Matrix
  • Business Model Canvas
  • PEST
  • Finances
  • Historical Trajectory
  • Brand Reputation
  • Future Prospects
  • Products & Services
  • Performance Metrics Analysis
  • Local, National & Global
  • 2. Markets, Customers & Journeys

  • Automotive
  • Decarbonization
  • Materials Services
  • Steel
  • Marine Systems
  • Artificial Intelligence
  • 3. Macro-Environment

  • Culture
  • Zeitgeist
  • Exponential AI Development
  • US Tech Embargos
  • Geopolitical Tensions
  • Climate Crisis
  • Economic Downturn
  • Health Threats
  • Misinformation
  • Energy Shocks
  • Infrastructure Failures
  • Financial System Instability
  • 25 Creative, Profitable & Bold
    Blue Ocean Strategies

    1. Green Steel-as-a-Service Subscription

    Rationale:
    - Leverages existing steel production capabilities
    - Meets growing sustainability demands
    - Creates recurring revenue streams

    Concept:
    Subscription model for green steel supply with carbon tracking

    Details:
    - Monthly/annual steel supply contracts
    - Integrated carbon footprint monitoring
    - Sustainability consulting services
    - Performance-based pricing models

    Potential: 2030: €5B → 2040: €12B → 2050: €20B

    2. Industrial AI Consultancy Services

    Rationale:
    - Utilizes existing AI expertise
    - Low capital requirements
    - High margins

    Concept: AI-driven optimization services for industrial processes

    Details:
    - Process optimization algorithms
    - Predictive maintenance
    - Energy efficiency solutions
    - Cross-industry applications

    Potential: 2030: €3B → 2040: €8B → 2050: €15B

    3. Circular Steel Economy Platform

    Rationale:
    - Leverages existing customer relationships
    - Creates closed-loop material flows
    - Minimal new infrastructure needed

    Concept: Digital marketplace for steel recycling and remanufacturing

    Details:
    - Automated material tracking
    - Premium pricing for recycled steel
    - Return incentive programs
    - Logistics optimization

    Potential: 2030: €4B → 2040: €9B → 2050: €15B

    4. Personalized Materials for SMEs

    Rationale:
    - Untapped market segment
    - Uses existing capabilities
    - Higher margins than bulk sales

    Concept: AI-driven custom materials solutions for smaller businesses

    Details:
    - Online configuration platform
    - Technical consulting services
    - Flexible order quantities
    - Just-in-time delivery

    Potential: 2030: €2.5B → 2040: €6B → 2050: €10B

    5. Smart Steel Products

    Rationale:
    - Differentiates commodity products
    - Creates recurring revenue
    - Leverages IoT expertise

    Concept: Steel products with integrated sensors & AI

    Details:
    - Real-time monitoring capabilities
    - Predictive maintenance
    - Performance analytics
    - Remote management

    Potential: 2030: €3B → 2040: €7B → 2050: €12B

    6. Energy-Efficient Building Systems

    Rationale:
    - Combines multiple product lines
    - Growing green building market
    - Regulatory tailwinds

    Concept: Integrated sustainable building solutions

    Details:
    - Smart elevators and HVAC
    - Energy management systems
    - Sustainability certification
    - Building automation

    Potential: 2030: €4B → 2040: €8B → 2050: €14B

    7. Lightweight EV Components

    Rationale:
    - Rapid EV market growth
    - Existing automotive relationships
    - Technical advantages

    Concept: Advanced materials for electric vehicles

    Details:
    - Composite materials development
    - Battery housing solutions
    - Structural components
    - Safety systems

    Potential: 2030: €5B → 2040: €12B → 2050: €18B

    8. Urban Mining Services

    Rationale:
    - Growing e-waste problem
    - Rare earth metal demand
    - Existing recycling expertise

    Concept: Specialized recycling for valuable materials

    Details:
    - Automated sorting systems
    - Precious metal recovery
    - Industrial waste processing
    - Material purification

    Potential: 2030: €3B → 2040: €8B → 2050: €15B

    9. Digital Twin Solutions

    Rationale:
    - High-margin software services
    - Leverages industrial expertise
    - Minimal capital investment

    Concept: Virtual replicas for industrial optimization

    Details:
    - Real-time simulation
    - Process optimization
    - Maintenance planning
    - Performance analytics

    Potential: 2030: €2B → 2040: €6B → 2050: €12B

    10. Biodegradable Packaging Materials

    Rationale:
    - Plastic replacement demand
    - Materials science capability
    - Regulatory pressure

    Concept: Sustainable packaging solutions

    Details:
    - Bio-based materials
    - Food-grade certification
    - Customizable properties
    - Circular economy integration

    Potential: 2030: €3B → 2040: €7B → 2050: €13B

    11. Autonomous Naval Systems

    Rationale:
    - Marine expertise foundation
    - Growing autonomous shipping market
    - Defense sector opportunities

    Concept:
    AI-powered vessels for defense & commercial use

    Details:
    - Autonomous navigation systems
    - Remote fleet management
    - Predictive maintenance
    - Defense-grade cybersecurity

    Potential: 2030: €4B → 2040: €10B → 2050: €18B

    12. Carbon Capture Mega-Plants

    Rationale:
    - Urgent climate action needs
    - Chemical engineering expertise
    - Government support likely

    Concept: Industrial-scale carbon capture and utilization facilities

    Details:
    - CO2 conversion technology
    - Storage solutions
    - Carbon credit trading
    - Industrial partnerships

    Potential: 2030: €6B → 2040: €15B → 2050: €25B

    13. 3D-Printed Steel Elements

    Rationale:
    - Additive manufacturing growth
    - High-margin specialized parts
    - Reduced material waste

    Concept: Custom metal 3D printing service network

    Details:
    - Rapid prototyping
    - Mass customization
    - Quality certification
    - Global print centers

    Potential: 2030: €3B → 2040: €8B → 2050: €15B

    14. Next-Gen Renewable Infrastructure

    Rationale:
    - Energy transition acceleration
    - Existing engineering capabilities
    - Strong market growth

    Concept: Integrated renewable energy systems & components

    Details:
    - Offshore wind systems
    - Energy storage solutions
    - Grid integration
    - Maintenance services

    Potential: 2030: €7B → 2040: €18B → 2050: €30B

    15. Distributed Manufacturing Network

    Rationale:
    - Supply chain resilience
    - Local production trends
    - Digital transformation

    Concept: AI-enabled micro-factories near customers

    Details:
    - Automated production cells
    - Real-time optimization
    - Quality control systems
    - Flexible manufacturing

    Potential: 2030: €5B → 2040: €12B → 2050: €20B

    16. Bionic Prosthetics Platform

    Rationale:
    - Aging population needs
    - Materials expertise leverage
    - Healthcare market growth

    Concept: Advanced prosthetics and exoskeletons

    Details:
    - Smart materials integration
    - Neural interfaces
    - Customization platform
    - Medical certification

    Potential: 2030: €4B → 2040: €10B → 2050: €18B

    17. Space Industry Materials

    Rationale:
    - Growing space economy
    - Specialized materials needs
    - High-margin potential

    Concept:
    Advanced materials for spacecraft and satellites

    Details:
    - Thermal protection systems
    - Radiation shielding
    - Lightweight composites
    - Testing facilities

    Potential: 2030: €3B → 2040: €12B → 2050: €25B

    18. Vertical Mobility Infrastructure

    Rationale:
    - Urban air mobility growth
    - Infrastructure expertise
    - First-mover advantage

    Concept: Complete urban air transport solutions

    Details:
    - Vertiport systems
    - Charging infrastructure
    - Air traffic management
    - Safety systems

    Potential: 2030: €4B → 2040: €15B → 2050: €28B

    19. Deep Sea Mining Solutions

    Rationale:
    - Resource scarcity
    - Marine engineering strength
    - High barriers to entry

    Concept: Sustainable deep ocean resource extraction

    Details:
    - Underwater vehicles
    - Processing systems
    - Environmental monitoring
    - Resource mapping

    Potential: 2030: €5B → 2040: €20B → 2050: €35B

    20. Artificial Island Construction

    Rationale:
    - Rising sea levels
    - Urbanization pressure
    - Engineering capabilities

    Concept: Floating infrastructure for coastal expansion

    Details:
    - Modular construction
    - Climate resilience
    - Utility systems
    - Smart city integration

    Potential: 2030: €8B → 2040: €25B → 2050: €40B

    21. Molecular Assembly Factories

    Rationale:
    - Next-gen manufacturing
    - Materials science leadership
    - High-margin potential

    Concept: Atomic-scale precision manufacturing platforms

    Details:
    - Nano-scale assembly
    - Quantum materials
    - Medical applications
    - Custom molecule design

    Potential: 2030: €2B → 2040: €20B → 2050: €45B

    22. Fusion Reactor Components

    Rationale:
    - Energy revolution potential
    - Engineering capabilities
    - First-mover advantage

    Concept: Specialized materials for fusion power plants

    Details:
    - High-temperature materials
    - Radiation shielding
    - Precision components
    - Safety systems

    Potential: 2030: €4B → 2040: €25B → 2050: €50B

    23. Neural Interface Materials

    Rationale:
    - Growing neurotech market
    - Materials expertise fit
    - Medical sector expansion

    Concept: Biocompatible materials for brain-computer interfaces

    Details:
    - Nano-scale interfaces
    - Biocompatibility testing
    - Signal processing
    - Medical certification

    Potential: 2030: €3B → 2040: €18B → 2050: €40B

    24. Quantum Computing Materials

    Rationale:
    - Computing revolution
    - Materials expertise
    - High barriers to entry

    Concept: Specialized materials for quantum computers

    Details:
    - Superconducting materials
    - Quantum chip components
    - Testing facilities
    - Quality control

    Potential: 2030: €4B → 2040: €25B → 2050: €55B

    25. Terraforming Technologies

    Rationale:
    - Climate crisis solutions
    - Engineering scale
    - Global impact

    Concept:
    Large-scale environmental transformation systems

    Details:
    - Atmospheric processors
    - Soil remediation
    - Water purification
    - Climate control

    Potential: 2030: €6B → 2040: €35B → 2050: €70B

    Thank You for Your Time

    Contact me for AI, business, strategic & creative consulting:

    EliasKouloures.com

    10117 Berlin, Germany

    elias.kouloures@gmail.com